The edible oil market remains highly volatile at the moment. Palm oil has fluctuated 10% in price down and then up again in just five days.

As the war in Ukraine pushes past the 100-day mark, it might be a good point to look at its impact on edible oil prices and possible market direction.

The ban on palm oil exports put the market in a spin at the end of April, and although the price initially spiked, it has come down slightly.

Palm oil prices increased today after top producer Indonesia said on Friday it would ban all exports of cooking oil from April 28, 2022.

War by its nature leads markets into uncertainty.

And for edible oil markets war in Ukraine has pushed the market to record levels.

Ukraine is the largest shipper of Sunflower oil, with Russia sitting just behind. Together they represent around 55% of the world's production. And this oil itself is about 10% of the world's edible oil crops.

As we enter 2022, commodity prices continue to be at an all-time high.

Shipping costs will also remain stubbornly high, looking at the Drewry’s World Container index – it appears to have plateaued somewhat after the highs in mid-2021 but is still 119% higher than the same week in 2020.

The latest variation of the COVID virus, Omicron B, has created uncertainty in the market once more. Will demand fall as countries close again? Or will demand rise as we consume more comfort food.

Positions are now sold out until January 2022, with raw material prices continuing to climb, on top of record-high shipping costs, which means coconut is at an all-time ‘eye-watering’ high. Long term, this could cause manufacturers to look at alternatives to coconut – but most ‘alternatives’ are in the same boat, pun intended!

Manilla is currently on a heighten lockdown. Moving around Manilla and its suburbs is problematic, meaning some factory workers struggle to get to work easily. There is also a lot of office staff working from home, which is not ideal.

Just 5.5 million Filipinos have now been fully vaccinated, which is just 5% of a population of 109,035,343, so the end of COVID related lockdowns is a long way off for the Philippines.

Just 5.5 million Filipinos have now been fully vaccinated, which is just 5% of a population of 109,035,343, so the end of COVID related lockdowns is a long way off for the Philippines.

What’s Causing The Container Ship Traffic Jam Clogging Up Global Trade?

Here is an excellent CNBC news report on the state of the current global shopping industry from the July 2nd on YouTube – it's about 10 minutes long and covers all of the points we have been making in the past 12 months about the issues we are facing with shipping – it's well worth ten minutes of your day.

The challenges of 2021 delays and high shipping prices have simply not gone away and have gotten worse.

Asia to US routes are becoming more congested and port congestion in the major west coast ports is not improving and in some cases getting worse.

There is still a significant challenge for the Philippines coconut market. COVID is still a massive issue in the country and is meaning that any improvements have been eroded.

2021 is another year of changes and uncertainties; while the COVID vaccination programs are well ahead in countries, others are heading into further lockdowns like France and Italy and the Philippines.

The ongoing shortages of coconut raw materials have led to some tough questions about where products are sourced.

Factories in the Philippines are beginning to catch up on production.

However, worldwide port congestion is becoming a significant issue. Our parent company has had a ship waiting at anchorage outside a UK port for almost a month. And this was already delayed on its route from Manilla.

Factories in the Philippines are currently running at a higher capacity than in recent months and are beginning to catch up slightly on lost production.

We started the year with considerable increases in freight rates from the Far East, especially to the EU, but also to the US and South America

2020 has been dominated by one thing, COVID, changing ways of life right around the globe and disrupting economies on a scale never before seen.